Somalia Faces Humanitarian Crisis
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Somalia has faced a humanitarian crisis for much of the year, but now it appears to be growing noticeably worse. A confluence of factors—including disease outbreaks, a growing famine, the absence of government, and the targeting of aid workers—make the country's future appear bleak. Describing the situation, UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon has stated: "Humanitarian conditions have taken a dramatic turn for the worse owing to the ongoing conflict, increasing food prices, a deepening drought that has hit a wide swathe of central Somalia, a poor start to the rainy season and increasing civil insecurity."
The food crisis is a global phenomenon. But a senior military intelligence officer noted to me that while the governments of other African countries are making tentative steps to address the problem, "in Somalia it is literally every man for himself." The UN places acute malnutrition rates above 20% in places like the Juba Valley and the Gedo, Bakol, and Bay regions—and UN officials believe the country is heading toward a "full-blown famine." Along with starvation, Somalis face the outbreak of diseases. Reuters reports, for example, that at least 18 children under age five have died from a measles outbreak in southern Somalia "that threatens hundreds of infants in the war-ravaged Horn of African country."
The humanitarian crisis is naturally exacerbated by the absence of an effective central government. Somalia jumped to number one in the Failed States Index released in late June by Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace. Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) is unable to enforce order in most of territorial Somalia, and the only thing preventing the TFG from being toppled by Somalia's Islamist insurgency is Ethiopian forces' continued presence. But even aid workers upon whom millions of Somalis depend in the absence of an effective government have become targets of violence, and are now fleeing the country. The International Herald Tribune reports:
They are being driven out by what appears to be an organized terror campaign. Ominous leaflets recently surfaced on the bullet-pocked streets of Mogadishu, Somalia's ruin of a capital, calling aid workers "infidels" and warning them that they will be methodically hunted down. Since January, at least 20 aid workers have been killed, more than in any year in recent memory. Still others have been abducted…. The attacks on aid workers—including Westerners, Somalis working for Western organizations and Somalis working for local groups—have escalated this month. Two weeks ago a high-ranking UN official was shot as he stepped out of a mosque. Last Sunday, a trucking agent in charge of transporting emergency rations was killed. On Thursday, three elders who were helping local aid workers distribute food at a displaced persons camp were shot and killed.
The International Herald Tribune notes that in response, the UN is withdrawing some employees. Other aid workers are fleeing the country, while some aid organizations are considering suspending operations there.
There is some dispute about where responsibility lies for the attacks on aid workers. The International Herald Tribune notes that Shabab leader Sheik Muktar Robow Abu Monsur has "said Islamic militants were actually guarding food convoys," while Mohamed Olad Hassan of the BBC has said that "it is not clear who is behind the killings, since many factions in Somalia's chaotic war stand to benefit from the violence." The theory that blames the TFG holds that "unsavory elements" within the government might be killing aid workers "to discredit Islamist opposition groups and draw in UN peacekeepers." On the other hand, the U.S. intelligence source with whom I spoke is convinced that Shabab is behind the targeted killings. Islamic militants have targeted aid workers in Somalia in the past, and my source noted that many within Shabab regard the presence of aid workers—particularly Western aid workers—as proof of a conspiracy to undermine Islam in Somalia. He also said that the late Shabab leader Aden Hashi 'Ayro held conspiratorial views about vaccinations similar to those of Mullah Fazlullah in Pakistan's Swat valley.
The threat to Somali aid comes not only by land, but also by sea. Aid ships delivering supplies have been under the threat of piracy for months, with at least two dozen ships headed for Somalia being attacked this year. The U.N. World Food Program has said that these attacks on aid vessels exacerbate the drought conditions, making massive famine more likely.
Though the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) insurgent faction reached a ceasefire agreement in recent months, it remains unimplemented. Not only have some high-level ARS leaders decried the agreement, but also Shabab appears to be a more powerful insurgent faction than ARS. Most occurrences of towns being overrun by militants or suicide bombings being successfully executed have been attributed to Shabab rather than ARS. Shabab also has more of a global jihadist outlook than ARS, as American-born jihadist Abu Mansoor al-Amriki explained in a communiqué released earlier this year. Thus, this agreement is unlikely to diminish Somalia's deepening humanitarian problems.
Source:Counterterrorism Blog